A Long Fossil Future
Everything's Coming Up Roses! Well, actually, fossils...fossil fuels that is. And this is all according to Exxon Mobil which just released an extremely bullish take on the health of the fossil fuel industries -- all the way up until 2040 or thereabouts. For Exxon it's all there in growing population, growing urbanization and therefore growing demand.
Does this great buzz of fossil-driven activity assure a parallel rise in C02 emissions, global warming and the like? Here again Exxon is optimistic: "In coming decades, although populations and living standards will rise significantly, ongoing improvements to energy efficiency – and increasing efforts to use lower-carbon fuels wherever practical – will slow the growth in energy-related CO2 emissions. In our view, global CO2 emissions are likely to peak around 2030, and then begin declining. As people and nations look for ways to reduce risks of global climate change, they will continue to need practical solutions that do not jeopardize the affordability or reliability of the energy they need. The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris highlighted this important issue. Many nations are already reducing their level of CO2 emissions relative to their GDP. By 2040, the carbon-intensity of the global economy is likely to fall by half, with substantial contributions from OECD and non-OECD nations alike. Energy efficiency gains are expected to be a major contributor to this achievement, supported by a gradual but significant transition to less-carbon-intensive energy types."