Surging non-OPEC+ oil production and significant storage space held by the OPEC+ group will continue to put downward pressure on crude oil prices next year, analysts say.
Barring a major geopolitical escalation resulting in a large supply outage—which cannot be discounted—, oil prices are unlikely to reach $100 a barrel in 2024 as American oil production and exports are rising faster and higher than expected, and market sentiment about demand is downbeat, especially for the first half of 2024.
With its latest announced cuts for the first quarter of 2024, the OPEC+ alliance is trying to keep tight control over the global oil supply. But the group faces record-breaking U.S. oil production and rising supply from other non-OPEC+ producers, including Brazil, Guyana, Canada, and Norway. Brazil has been invited to be part of OPEC+ starting in January 2024, but it has already said that it would not take part in any production cuts.
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