After catching up to the US in overall energy consumption in 2009, China will go on to surpass us in the production of electricity by 2015, according to the Energy Research Institute. China may be the “world’s biggest polluter” right now but this is only a foreshadowing of what is to come. While the US has now lowered coal to 45 percent of consumption and is moving toward natural gas, China’s coal segment will remain at 66 percent by 2035, with natural gas rising to only 3 percent, according to ERI. This figure may be an underestimation, however, since fracking technology may make it across the Pacific and China may turn out to have the same vast deposits of shale gas that are being discovered in the US and Europe. Nuclear will expand rapidly but only enough to constitute 10 percent of generation by 2035, still well below the US’s 20 percent. China will expand its considerable hydroelectric resources, but only enough to keep pace with growing demand.

But that’s only half the story. Over half of China’s coal consumption is still in the industrial sector, outside the generation of electricity. As ERI reports: “[T]he largest use of coal is for coke production which is used to make pig iron. China was the world’s largest producer of both steel and pig iron in 2008 supplying 50 percent of the world’s pig iron production and 38 percent of the world’s raw steel output. Not only is China the world’s largest producer of steel and pig iron, but it is also the world’s largest producer of cement. It produced 55 percent of the world’s cement supply in 2010, increasing its production by 10 percent over 2009 levels. India ranks second in cement production at 7 percent and the United States ranks third with 2 percent of the world’s production.”

The figures make it clear that the world’s manufacturing and industrial center of gravity is rapidly shifting to Asia. As a consequence, most of the world’s air pollution and greenhouse gases will be emanating from across the Pacific. Although it will be important to reduce carbon emissions in this country, it will probably make very little difference in the overall picture – particularly is this is accomplished simply by shifting production to Asia. If the dire predictions for global warming are true, the earth is going to become a much warmer place – and China will be the furnace.