AP Photo

Things used to be easy for President Putin in the 2000s. Oil and gas was on the up, hitting historically nominal highs in 2008. In a world of ‘petro-state paradise’, Russia was a key beneficiary. Serious upstream investment wasn’t needed to meet demand; the Kremlin could sweat assets, maintain production (and prices), all while playing politics with the energy sector to divide, and ultimately rule. A raft of Western oil majors got shanked, being chopped out production sharing agreements. It was literally a case of sit back and watch the petro-cash roll in. But this old ‘Putin 1.0’ formula will find things very difficult in an ‘energy 2.0 future’. Things have changed, and radically so for Russia: If the President wants to survive – let alone prosper towards 2018 –...